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September 5th, 2008

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Instinctive paranoia

September 1st, 2008

Paranoidal feelings are filling my soul. I can’t stop thinking about profits casinos make from online gambling. So here’s me sitting here nursing a consolatory screwdriver and my quiet time’s disturbed by the young fellah who seems to think I owe him another piece. He’s got no cause to beef with me. And it’s not like he’s anteing up so much cash he gets any rights to bid me what to do. He’s like a piker - stingy bettor with a big mouth. Not worth the time of day, most days.

Just a moment of anger. Ain’t no-one with the cojones to try anything against me for real - not with my connections. But there’s lots of folk get it into their heads that online video poker sites are cheating them. So I s’pose I’d better say a few words of reassurance - not that it’ll actually boost your confidence. The truth ain’t designed to do that.

So, let me sit you down in front of a video poker machine playing Jacks or Better on a pay table that’s offering 9-6-250 like online at goldencasino.com. For those who’ve not boned up on the jargon, that’s a machine paying 250 per coin on a Royal Flush, 9 on a Full House and 6 on a Flush. That machine’s set up to pay back only a fraction over 98% of what it takes. Even if you play a perfect strategy on this machine, the theoretical return never gets above 100%. It bears saying again. Polk can’t play the perfect strategy, the House edge on every video poker machine keeps the funds rolling in. That’s why you gotta pass the carousels of slot machines before you get to the tables. They’re the bread-an-butter earners for every casino.

So why do some folk get so all-fired sure they’ve been cheated by slot machines? In a word: frustration. They were hot, certain their luck was in, but had a long bad session. That always makes the loss harder to bear - when your emotion gets in the way of your judgement. Gambling’s got streaks of luck both ways. On one hot August night in 1913, the roulette wheel in Monte Carlo came up black a record-breaking twenty-six times in a row. The House took millions of extra profit. Half the room got to playing the Martingdale System. They were doubling their bets after every loss. But they tapped out of money before the streak ended. Was there anything wrong with the wheel? Nope! The math god smiled and it was true.

If I stopped there, there’s no sense in any casino cheating on the slot machines. But there’s no denying you’re right ’bout one thing. Greed’s the worm in the gambling apple. Don’t matter which side of the fence you’re on, there’s always some as thinks they’re gonna hit it big. So I’ve seen pit bosses and managers decide the Vig’s not enough and rig the games. I’ve seen a few do it to put the money in their own pockets - most of them got decent burials, too. Yeh, there’s some cheating going on, but most of it’s on your side and it’s not very subtle.

Just ’cause you come up empty on one or two sessions don’t mean nothing ‘cept your wins and losses’re averaging out over time. To make any kinda case against the casino, you’d need evidence. How you gonna that that evidence? Well, you gotta test their slot machines. Pick one of their video poker games. Say before you start how many times you’re gonna play and what you hafta see to prove the machine’s rigged. S’pose you think a video poker game don’t have all the faces in the deck - you’ve to track the frequency of the faces as they show in the count of all non-face cards. Tracking how many hands you played and how many you won or lost ain’t no proof at all. You need a test that’s statistically significant to prove cheating. So how many thousand hands of data you gonna pay to collect to test your hypothesis? It’s put up or shut up. No-one likes a sore loser unless they got the evidence to prove otherwise.

One last thought before the thinking’s done: some of you load up your own software to run alongside video poker machines - kinda like a coach. Me, I don’t have no problem with that, but some online casinos’re uploading Dynamic Link Library subroutines to identify the applications you’re running at the same time as the casino package. They might not like some of the things they find - not within the spirit of the game from their point of view.

A slots tournament? What’s that all about?

August 29th, 2008

When you go to a slot machine in a casino or log into an online casino and play the slots, it’s a battle between you and the machine to see who comes out the winner. Actually, even if you’re a professional, the machine will almost always come out ahead over the long term. That’s the way casinos make a profit. But for fun, you can sign up for a tournament where you’re playing against the other players. In the real world, one of the current tournaments is running at Cache Creek Casino in Yolo County, for the next six weeks. It finishes at midnight on the 19th June.

Like most real-world tournaments, the casino has corralled a number of machines and members of your slots club are rotated in every fifteen minutes to play for three minutes. The player who racks up the biggest score in those three minutes will be the winner. The total prize money fund is $200,000 with everyone in the top fifty winning at least $1,000.

Online, the same principles apply. Whoever enters the tournament is given a preset number of credits and a fixed time. The others have an entry fee. It is customary to return most of the stake money as prizes. This differs from the real world where the players may get other comps like drinks, meals or subsidised rooms in the hotel to offset any reduction in the prize money.

How do you play in a tournament? You need to be fast (and lucky). Whatever the time allocated, you must make sure you use all the credits you are given. The winner will have used all his or her credits, made the best decisions on holds, and been lucky with the draws. If you cannot get through your credits in the time, you are not going to win unless you are lucky enough to get some good scores. Always check the pay table before you start and make sure you aim for the best paying combinations. That means it’s all down to concentration and fast reflexes. As soon as you see the draw, you must be hitting the holds and draw button. If you slow down, you lose.

This high pressure may not be for you. If you’re playing for fun, this may be taking life too seriously. But if you do want to improve your skills, playing a tournament or two will get the adrenaline running and build up your speed and accuracy.

Obviously, if you have never tried a slots tournament, the best way to find out whether you enjoy one is to enter one that is free. The fact that you pay nothing up front and may still win a prize makes this format the most attractive for a beginner. The commercial rationale for the casino is that playing even a free tournament gets you playing in that casino. Once you are logged in, you are likely to play for real on either side of your allotted time, so the casino makes its money out of your other online time.

How to Tell if Your Opponent is Bluffing

August 27th, 2008

Even in online poker (you cannot see a “poker face” per se), there are some telltale signs that a player is bluffing. In fact, there are many ways to spot a poker bluff. Among the most common signs are impatience and attempts to distract you. Pay close attention to players who exhibit these kinds of behaviors.
Main sign of a bluff is a player who is “sitting out” and then suddenly re-enters the game just as the cards are being dealt. If this player is also quick to call or raise, he or she may simply be in too much of hurry to seriously be playing a good hand. To win consistently with good hands, players must take the time to play strategically. Someone who always plays holdem poker quickly is not taking the time necessary to play a good hand. On a similar note, very loose players who bet on every hand are also very likely to be bluffing much of the time. It isn’t possible to always have a good starting hand.

Another sign of bluffing to look for is a player who checks on the turn after betting on the flop. This may look like confidence, but how confident is this player in reality? Players who do this should be called. If you have a decent hand and feel confident, force this type of player to bet.

Always pay attention to what a player shows at the end of a hand. This is another way to pick out a bluff. If you notice a player raise before the flop and that player loses the hand, notice what he or she shows. If it is not much, it is probably a bluff, and the player is likely to try it again. Be aware of that player’s tendency to bluff foolishly.

Also be careful of a player who has low stacks and bets an entire bankroll. This may be a player who is ready to give up and is playing with an “all or nothing” mentality to see if they can win the pot and stay in the game.

As you can see, playing with impatience is, in fact, one of the biggest mistake a poker bluff will make. While a good bluff may be able to fake patience, an impatient player is a top suspect for being a bluff.

Mistakes. I’ve made quite a few!

August 13th, 2008

he young fellah tells me to just let rip, so now I’m gonna give it to you straight and fast. You don’t like it. Well, you can do the other thing. At my time of life, I got no time for them as thinks they know better unless they’re buying me drinks. Then I reckon they’re buying my time - anyways, people in bars always seem more interesting when free alcohol kicks in.

So, here I am, playing video poker. I’m feeding the machine and keeping count of the number of times I do and don’t get winning combinations in the pay table. Got me some serious scientific study going on here! My video poker strategy is down pat! You see, to my way of thinking, there’s no such thing as a random sequence. The probability of any one thing happening is set by what went before. So, if I got me a winning hand, the law of averages says the odds of that happening again is poorer for the hands that come just after it. An’ that’s true for the reverse as well. The longer I go without a winning hand, the more likely a big hand gets.

vThese folk live in a dream world. You ever watch a Poker Dealer wash and shuffle a deck of 52 cards fairly. Then the Dealer deals five cards to each player from that shuffled deck. The first card dealt comes with a 1 in 52 chance, the second with a 1 in 51 chance, and so on as the cards are dealt in turn. All the countries licensing video versions of card and dice games have laws. No country wants to kill the golden goose that’s laying all them tax eggs so they all want to see fair games. Players vote with their feet if they think a game’s crooked. That’s in no-one’s interest. So all casinos gotta match the odds of a real card game with a human dealer. You might be thinking these casinos’ll still be out to cheat you in some way - after all, wouldn’t nothing be easier than to tweak the software - and those countries’re probably corrupt, take a backhander and look the other way. But there’s no need to cheat. No matter how you cut it, the games make more’n enough money when played fairly. Even when serious professionals come out to play, the House has an edge.

Tips For a Winning Poker Bluff

August 13th, 2008

Sometimes in poker, you have a great hand. Sometimes you don’t. But not having the best hand does not automatically make you a loser. If you are able to convince other players that your hand is better than it really is, you may be able to bluff your way to victory. If you can master the art of bluffing, you will have a valuable tool that can help you increase your winnings. Here are some pointers for bluffing successfully.

  • Bluff when the board indicates that someone could “possibly” have a good hand. For example, if three cards of the same suit are on the board, someone could be holding the fourth card, giving them a flush. If you bet like you are that someone, you might convince the other players that you are. If you can do that, the other players will fold, and you will win the poker hand.
  • If it is apparent that another player is looking for a reason to fold, put down a bet that is large enough to give them the reason they are looking for.
  • Pay attention to the betting habits of other players. A novice player may bluff too often. An experienced player may be tougher to figure out, but that is the player that really needs to be watched closely.
  • Wait before you bluff. If players ahead of you are folding, checking or calling, you have a better idea of what hands they may have then if you attempt to bluff early.
  • Don’t bluff loose tables unless all of the loose players have already folded. In general, though, loose players tend to play more hands and stay with weaker hands. Bluffing works best at tight tables where players are more likely to fold.
  • Use caution when bluffing if you are playing with weak or inexperienced players. These players may not pay attention to your bluff and won’t notice that you are acting like you have a strong hand. They may stay in simply because they don’t notice what you are doing.
  • It is much less likely that someone will call your bluff if the table’s limits are high. At low limit tables, there is not much of an advantage to bluffing since it is highly likely that someone will take a chance and call your bluff.
  • Use common bluffing scenarios to your advantage but be careful that the stronger players at the table do not notice and turn things against you. For example, suppose it is the late position pre-flop and two players follow you. Your hand does not seem good but everyone else has folded so far. If you bluff here, the remaining two players are likely to think you have a good hand.
  • Don’t bluff too often. Other players who are paying attention to you won’t continue to fall for it. Of course, if you have a good hand right after bluffing successfully, you have an advantage because other players may think you are bluffing again when you’re not.
  • Don’t bet with a pattern. Other players will figure it out if they are paying attention. Find a strategy that will keep other players guessing.

In order to be a good poker player, you need to be skilled at bluffing. This will take some practice, trial and error since bluffing is an art, not a science. By varying your approach, you can make it most effective. Once you have mastered the art of bluffing, you will have a winning edge that can lead to big profits.